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市场速报 – 硅谷银行的陷落
硅谷银行(SVB)的倒闭,或许会在一些投资者心中引起不安。然而,过去几天,我们观察到美国监管部门正积极迅速采取措施,力争稳固民众对金融系统的信心,有效控制了危机蔓延的势头,防止了局势失控。除此之外,FDIC已经表示将为硅谷银行托底,对所有储户的存款进行担保。
请放心,finexis和FAM的投资组合与硅谷银行并没有直接关联。在最近的市场波动中,我们没有观察到超出预期的影响。尽管如此,我们仍在密切关注相关情况,并将向您通报重要进展。
以下内容总结了目前进展和关键点供您参考:
硅谷银行暴雷——美国高利率环境是主因
硅谷银行是美国第16大银行,也是科技初创企业的主要融资方,由于客户群集中、科技行业的不景气以及银行资产和负债之间的不匹配等因素,SVB容易受到美联储激进加息的影响而崩溃。
硅谷银行在过去几年的科技热潮中吸收了大量的存款,在低利率时期,SVB将大量资金投入美国长期政府债券。然而,当美联储为了遏制通货膨胀而提高利率时,这些债券的市场价值急剧下降(请记住,利率上升时,债券价格下跌!)。
此外,由于经济形势低迷,由风险投资机构支持的众多初创企业为了维持运营,开始动用他们的存款。由于储户提取资金的速度超过了银行的承受能力,硅谷银行被迫承担极高的损失,抛售长期债券为提款提供资金,这样的挤兑最终导致了银行的倒闭,使硅谷银行成为继2008年华盛顿互助银行倒闭后,美国历史上倒闭的第二大银行。
监管机构干预¬——为储户存款托底
尽管对银行进一步挤兑的担忧可能会持续一段时间,但当局针对SVB倒闭采取的监管措施或许能缓和这种担忧。在吸取了2008年金融危机的教训后,监管机构已经迅速地采取了行动,以增强市场信心:
2023年3月12日财政部、美联储及联邦存款保险公司联合声明表示: “我们正果断采取行动,通过加强公众对银行系统的信心来保护美国经济。”
•上周五,硅谷银行被监管机构迅速查封,联邦存款保险公司成为了SVB的接管人和新的”负责人”。
•监管机构在周末宣布,储户将在3月13日(星期一)前获得他们全部存款的权限,其中包括受保险部分(25万美元以下)和未受保部分(25万美元以上)的全部金额。这项措施同样适用于签名银行,该银行是加密货币市场的主要银行之一,也在硅谷银行破产的几天后宣布破产。
•美联储拟创建新的银行定期融资计划(BTFP),提供高达250亿美元的资金支持。这项计划旨在为符合条件的银行提供流动性支持,以应对由大量取款而出现的资金需求。
•汇丰银行以1英镑收购了硅谷银行英国子公司。英格兰银行表示这将有效保障储户的资金安全。
FAM的资产组合是如何配置的?
我们对科技行业的配置较低(与被动投资基准相比),而对于一些美国区域银行(如硅谷银行、美国联合银行)的配置也较少。在我们最具进攻性的投资组合(FME)中,对于美国银行的总体投资比例不到1.4%,而多元资产组合的FGO Plus和FGO中对美国银行投资比例则分别为 0.8% 和 0.3%。
我们的投资组合能够在市场上涨时获得可观的收益,同时在像上周这样市场波动明显的情况下保持坚挺,展现强大的抗风险能力。这得益于投资组合的多元化策略,我们通过配置定位于复苏主题和稳定主题(如医疗保健股)的投资,实现可靠的稳定收益。
3 核心观点
我们借此机会强调经营企业和管理投资组合之间的一些相似之处:
1.不要把鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里
硅谷银行的业务侧重于由风险投资机构支持的初创企业和科技公司,这从反面印证了多元化的重要性,即单一的不利事件不会对整体业务造成重大冲击。同样地,在投资中,分散投资于不同的资产类别、地域、行业等,能够有效降低整个投资组合的风险,从而避免单一的持仓使整个投资组合面临亏损。正是因为这个原因,我们选择分散投资于不同的领域,及时把握每一个机会以取得出色表现。例如,我们投资于医疗保健股、中国 “A “股和美国小盘股等不同的领域,以期实现整体投资组合的稳定增长。
2.透过现象看本质(通过研究投资组合的构成理解投资收益的驱动因素)
硅谷银行增长的主要由科技行业的存款驱动。疫情期间美联储推行宽松政策,这对于科技初创公司的存款增长起到了巨大的刺激作用,进而带动了硅谷银行的快速增长。然而,这同时也暴露了其业务容易受到逆转影响的脆弱性。一个企业的增长乍看之下可能令人印象深刻,但更重要的是关注其增长的来源和可持续性。在投资中,仅仅依赖表现数据来评估一个投资的未来前景是不够全面的,我们需要深入了解投资表现的驱动因素,这也正是我们使用基本面、估值和技术分析(FVT)的原因。我们通过FVT指导投资决策,以深入了解驱动投资表现的内在因素。
3.管理风险,防患未然
无论是经营企业还是管理投资组合,都需要有效地管理风险。硅谷银行倒闭的原因在于其未能妥善管理自身风险,在利率较低时大量买入长期政府债券。当债券收益率上升时,SVB所持有的债券的价格遭受了沉重的打击。在后期大量储户提取存款时,SVB不得不出售大量处于亏损状态的资产来满足流动性,造成了大量损失。同样,对于投资来说,恰当的风险管理也是必不可少的。我们通过布局于短久期债券来管理投资组合的利率风险,在利率波动时期,这种短久期债券仍能保持韧性。
然而,在经营企业和管理投资组合之间,存在着一个关键的区别:经营企业允许失败和再度尝试,而管理投资组合则需要担负起长期增长的责任。这意味着需要避免永久性的资本损失,就像传奇投资人沃伦·巴菲特所说:“投资的首要原则就是不要亏损”。在追求高投资回报的同时,我们必须注重管理风险以保护资本,确保长期的稳健投资回报。这是一场关于时间、风险和责任的博弈,需要睿智的眼光和深谋远虑的决策。