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市场速报 – 惠誉下调美国信用评级!
如果你只有一分钟时间阅读 :
三大评级机构目前的美国信用评级
“国债仍然是世界上最重要的兼具安全性和流动性的资产。”
——美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦
“我们在 2011年并未看到任何相关的可靠依据”
指 2011 年标准普尔下调美国评级对市场情绪构成了显著负面冲击,但当时并未出现明显的被迫抛售的行为。
——美国财政部金融市场副部长乔希·弗罗斯特
“我们不认为此次降级反映了新的有关美国政府稳健性的重要信息。”
——PIMCO
“我们认为没有任何明智的国债持有者会因为评级下调而被迫出售”
——高盛公司
发生了什么?
惠誉评级公司(Fitch Ratings,三大信用评级机构之一)将美国的信用评级从最高级别的 AAA 下调一档至 AA+。下调评级的由 “治理水平的下降”所引发,这导致债务上限冲突反复发生。惠誉还强调了日益加重美国政府债务负担也将带来隐患。
各大媒体针对这一事件进行了大量报道,投资者也纷纷开始讨论全球最大经济体的评级下调可能带来的影响。尽管市场中充满担忧,一些专业人士却表示投资者无需对此次美国评级下调作出过度解读。美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)称此次评级下调的判断已经”过时”,并称国债仍然是世界上最重要的兼具安全性和流动性的资产。
这种情况早前也曾发生:2011 年的回声
惠誉的评级下调与2011年标准普尔下调美国信用评级并无二致,当时标准普尔也因类似的债务上限危机而将美国的信用评级下调至 AA+。尽管这已经成为过去(这是美国自 1941 年被授予 AAA 最高评级以来首次失去该评级),但评级下调所带来的长期影响微乎其微.
市场反应: 往昔与今朝
市场对降级消息的反应相对有限,尽管市场在消化这一消息的过程中出现了一定的波动——2023 年 8 月 2 日,全球股市和债券分别下跌了 1.64% 和 0.13%,但值得注意的是,此次抛售是在6月和7月连续两个月上涨的背景下发生的,交易者也可能抓住降级带来的机会,收割之前的盈利。
投资者应做好应对近期波动的准备,但仍应继续保持投资,以把握市场的中长期回报潜力。与今天相比,2011年标普下调美国信用评级对市场带来的冲击更为猛烈(当时,全球股市因标普下调评级而下跌超过 5%),但并未导致市场或更广泛的经济长期下滑。
我们投资组合的定位
这一事件对我们的投资组合定位并未产生直接冲击。我们的投资组合仍然保持着良好的平衡,既能把握中期复苏,又能在动荡的市场中保持弹性。市场对此消息的初期反应相对温和,价格波动并不显著,我们的定位于稳定性的投资(跌幅较小,不到 1%)也在市场动荡中为我们提供了额外缓冲。
这样的不可预测的事件强调了投资策略的重要性。在短期内,市场可能会动荡不安,但长期投资者可以利用这样的时期积累仓位,以获取更高的长期回报。我们的策略旨在穿越这种市场波动,灵活把握机遇。因此,我们无需在市场动荡中畏惧!