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月度市场时评
想他人之所不想 得他人之所不得
要点概述
市场回顾
二月是一个动荡的月份,全球股市在月末下半段回落,主要受到美国市场拖累。固定收益市场录得温和上涨,债券收益率下降,反映出投资者在较弱的经济数据和更广泛的风险资产回撤背景下转向更安全资产。美国例外主义的叙事消退,中国和欧洲因此受益。中国市场在DeepSeek发布AI模型后以及习近平主席对中国最大科技公司的更开放支持下,市场情绪有所改善;而欧洲则受益于支持经济增长和安全的潜在政策变化带来的顺风。特朗普2.0“胡萝卜加大棒”策略:“大棒”正在损害市场情绪,更强硬的政策(如关税和DOGE裁员)成为投资者关注的焦点
高风险谈判正在进行
上个月,我们强调了关税在高风险谈判中被用作杠杆——这正是目前正在发生的情况:
2月1日:美国首次宣布对加拿大和墨西哥征收关税,以解决非法移民问题。
2月3日:特朗普在获得边境安全承诺后暂停了计划中的关税。
3月4日:特朗普以缺乏进展为由重新实施了这些关税。
特朗普将关税作为谈判杠杆的做法可能会导致经济环境的不确定性,从而引发市场波动。
从关税恐慌到增长恐慌?
人们越来越担心特朗普的政策可能会引发经济放缓。 我们观察到一些近期美国经济数据中的疲软迹象,这些值得关注,例如商业和消费者信心恶化以及劳动力市场的压力。 担忧是否被夸大?目前的数据疲软可能只是一次增长恐慌,最终可能让位于牛市的恢复。 经济增长并未骤降,只是有所放缓,仍存在一些强劲领域,例如服务业PMI的持续扩张和支持性的企业盈利。
特朗普2.0时期的收入投资
在股市波动中,收入投资者迎来好消息:尽管股市回调,收入投资组合依然展现出韧性。新兴市场和亚洲企业债券表现优异,提振了我们的固定收益头寸。虽然贸易紧张局势影响所有地区,但更稳定的新兴市场基本面支持了其此次的优异表现。收入市场的格局仍然充满动态变化,与去年相比,机会正在转移。例如,美国高收益债券在2024年提供了有吸引力的收益率,但其估值已上升,降低了未来获取超额回报的潜力。
更多精彩时评
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